What is happening in Luhya politics ahead of 2027 polls?

Top Western Kenya leaders—including Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula all of the pro-establishment and the anti-establishment forces led by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Kakamega Senator Bonnie Khalwale and his Vihiga counterpart Godfrey Osotsi, are separately holding strategic meetings to consolidate the rich Luhya vote and claim a stronger stake in national power politics ahead of next year’s general elections.

Luhya politics are dominated by intense realignments and a push for regional unity ahead of the 2027 elections which is in the offing.

Those aware of the happenings say if it happens that the united opposition picks a Luhya as a running mate to president William Ruto, it will do so by either picking Mudavadi or Wetang’ula.

History is bound to repeat itself as it happened in 2022 when the late Raila Odinga picked Martha Karua, a Kikuyu as deputy only for Ruto to change his mind from Prof Kithure Kindiki for Rigathi Gachagua, a Kikuyu also.

 From the word go, Rigathi factor was aimed at countering Karua, hence he was later to be impeached to create space for the law professor from Tharaka Nthi.

For now, if opposition settles on Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka as a compromise candidate, signs are DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa will be his running mate, although others want Sifuna. The two happen to be Luhyas.

If it happens and Ruto retains Kindiki as his running mate, the Luhya vote bloc will swing to the opposition. It will consolidate Kikuyu, Luhya, Kamba vote bloc, thus a nagging political headache for Ruto.

Luhya pro state political luminaries are aware that they will be major causalities, hence now working on plan B. To them, if a Luhya is picked by Ruto as running mate, it will be easy to sell a point, vote for Ruto reelection and within five years, a Luhya will be president succeeding him.

To them, if the opposition picks a Luhya deputy, it will take them another ten years to see the presidency. That is the idea Kakamega deputy governor Ayub Savula is preaching on the ground.

On the other hand, Natembeya is spearheading the TAWE movement and positioning himself as a fresh, grassroot alternative to challenge established leaders and unify the Luhya bring on his side fresh blood.

Not left behind is Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya.

Wetang’ula and Mudavadi are rallying on the community to support President William Ruto for 2027, urging the region to remain unified to secure top-tier leadership in the future.

But they are aware of the running mate aspect. If a Luhya is not picked by Ruto, then forget it!

Natembeya, Sifuna camp has actively engaged with ODM and UDA leadership with Sifuna positioning himself as the most vocal opponent of the broad-based government arrangement between ODM and President Ruto’s UDA.

Analysts say that Natembeya’s decision to defend his governor’s seat opened the window for the rise of Sifuna. But the opposition outfit in Luhya politics should be aware that the current popularity they enjoy on the ground has united Kenya Kwanza symphathisers for political survival in 2027, hence the recent Naivasha meeting and push for deputy slot as your favourite Weekly Citizen reported two weeks ago.

To Natembeya, leaders from the Mulembe Nation remain committed to engaging in meaningful dialogue aimed at strengthening unity, leadership and national cohesion.

Natembeya recent discussions happened after Naivasha pro state talks. Present were Sifuna, Osotsi, Kanduyi MP John Makali Wamboka, Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga and Kakamega Senator Khalwale, among other leaders from the region. Saboti MP, Caleb Amisi, is key member.

“The Mulembe Nation, under our collective leadership together with Sifuna, Osotsi, Wamboka, Kalasinga, Khalwale and the rest of our dedicated leaders and Kenya at large, continues to engage in meaningful dialogue that strengthens unity, leadership, and national cohesion.

 Together, we remain committed to building a more inclusive, peaceful and prosperous country for all. Our unity remains the strongest foundation for national progress,” Natembeya stated.

According to Natembeya, the leaders are focused on building a united front that will champion the interests of Western Kenya region, while also promoting peace and inclusivity across the country.

UDA, Western Kenya leaders want the region to be considered for the Deputy President’s position in President Ruto’s 2027 re-election strategy.

The push emerged during a high-level meeting in Naivasha attended by Wetang’ula and more than 28 MPs drawn from the Western Kenya Parliamentary Caucus and Kakamega Governor Fernandez Barasa. Those in the know say many of those present were of the idea that Ruto is taking the region for granted and come 2027, it will be no business as usual. Leading rebellion is Rapheal Wanjala, the Budalangi MPin Busia county.

Addressing journalists at Lake Naivasha Resort last week, the legislators maintained that Western Kenya has remained politically consistent in its support for successive administrations but has historically been under-represented in top national appointments.

They argued that it was time for the region to produce the country’s Deputy President.

“We are demanding the running mate position for His Excellency President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election because we have the requisite numbers and capability for the position,” read part of a statement delivered by Lugari MP Nabii Nabwera.

During the 2022 general election, ODM party extended its dominance in Western Kenya region by winning majority seats across the board.

Apart from bagging the governorship in Vihiga, Busia and Trans Nzoia, the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition has also dominated the majority of elective seats at both National Assembly and Member of County Assemblies positions.

In Kakamega County, many of the incumbents retained their seats with the party securing 8 of the 12 Member of Parliament seats with two constituencies of Lugari and Likuyani registering new entrants.

However, the majority of ODM MPs in Kakamega and Busia are for Ruto’s re-election. They have also been avoiding being associated with either Oburu or Sifuna side in ODM wangles.

Western MPs are Bungoma Mt. Elgon – Fred Kapondi  (UDA), Sirisia – John Waluke  (JP), Kabuchai  – Majimbo Kalasinga (FORD-Kenya), Bumula – Jack Wamboka (DAP-K), Kanduyi – John Makali (FORD-Kenya),Webuye East – Martin Pepela (FORD-Kenya), Webuye West – Daniel Wanyama (UDA), Kimilili – Didmus Barasa  (UDA) and Tongaren – John Chikati(FORD-Kenya) with Senator Khalwale (Kakamega).

County woman member to National Assembly is Catherine Wambilianga (FORD-Kenya) and Senator Wafula Wakoli.

In Busia, there are Teso North – Edward Kaunya (ODM), Teso South – Mary Emaase (UDA), Nambale – Geoffrey Mulanya (Independent), Matayos – Geoffrey Odanga (ODM), Butula –Maero Oyula (ODM), Funyula –Ojiambo Oundo (ODM) and Budalangi –Wanjala (ODM).

County woman member to National Assembly is Catherine Omanyo (ODM) and Senator Okiya Omtatah.

Kakamega county MPs are, Matungu, Oscar Nabulindo elected on ANC party but crossed over to ODM after Mudavadi joined Ruto in the Kenya Kwanza coalition.

Butere MP Tindi Mwale retained his seat on an ODM ticket against his closest competitor Habil Nanjendo of ANC. Others in Butere race were Michael Keya (UDA) and Ruth Oniang’o (UDP),

 In Lurambi, constituency, MP Bishop Titus Khamala retained his seat on an ODM ticket after deserting ANC with his closet rival being Timothy Bunyali of DAP-K.

In Khwisero constituency, Christopher Aseka of ODM retained his seat after flooring his main challenger Godfrey Kanoti of ANC by polling 28,156 votes against Kanoti’s 4,673 votes.

Johnson Naicca managed to retain the Mumias West parliamentary seat on an ODM ticket defeating former Sports Minister Rashid Echesa of UDA who came in second.

In Likuyani constituency, a new entrant Innocent Mugabe won the MP’s seat on ODM.

Mugabe, a former Mombasa county government chief officer was given a direct ticket by ODM. He was initially the running mate for ODM governorship candidate to Barasa.

In Lugari, Nabwera garnered 23,159 votes to win the seat previously held by Savula.

Nabwera beat his closest rival, Isaac Andabwa of DAP-K who obtained 11,086 votes.

Mudavadi’s ANC party managed to secure three parliamentary seats of Navakholo, Malava and Shinyalu constituencies, while Eugene Wamalwa’s party, DAP-K bagged one seat of Mumias East.

Shinyalu has Fredrick Ikana, running on an ANC ticket trounced the sitting MP Justus Kizito who came a distant third.

In Navakholo, Emmanuel Wangwe is ODM MP.

 In Mumias East, Peter Salasya of DAP-K won the seat after garnering 12,140 votes against his closest rival David Wamatsi of UDA who obtained 9,430 votes.

In Malava constituency, the late Malulu Injendi in 2022 weathered stiff competition to retain the seat on ANC ticket.

Injendi passed on February 17, 2025 and in the subsequent by-election, David Ndakwa of UDA won the hotly contested by-election.

As things stand in Kakamega now in the MPs race, the current ones will shift base to new outfits to survive.

Vihiga county has Vihiga –Kivai Kagesi (ANC), Sabatia – Clement Sloya (UDA), Hamisi – Charles Gimose (ANC), Luanda – Dick Maungu (DAP-K), Emuhaya – Omboko Milemba (ANC), Woman rep Beatrice Adagala and Senator Osotsi.

Gimose is one of those fearing Ruto future is bleak and claims the possibility of rigging is high. Gimose has perfected the art of shifting parties any election year. He was at one time in ANC, then Ford K but now UDA.

In Luanda, Maungu next party for reelection is not known but not DAP-K as things stand. With ANC of Mudavadi gone, talk is rife, pro state MPs are pushing for Oparanya and Wetang’ula to unite under Ford K, the party associated with Luhya prominent politicians in early 1990s and 2020s. Ford Kenya if rebranded is to accommodate elected MPs not comfortable with UDA politics, and of course Oparanya.  For now, Ford K is their plan B as Netambeya camp still shops for a party.