Has Ruto sensed defeat in 2027 polls?

The assurance by President William Ruto that he will respect the outcome of the 2027 General Election and peacefully handover power if he loses the presidential race has left Kenyans wondering whether the Head of State has finally sensed defeat and placed his fate in God’s hands.

Political analysts say Ruto’s main headache as he heads to 2027 presidential race is the fact that he has already lost keyboard war read – social media pulpits –   to the opposition side.

Ahead of 2022 elections, Ruto had a powerful social media team that greatly influenced voting patterns in his favour. It was led by his aide Dennis Itumbi.
The 2024 Gen Zs rebellion that saw Ruto eat a humble pie and rush to the late ODM leader Raila Odinga for his recue was linked to  the digital revolution.

Ever since then, the anti-Ruto digital sentiments have been growing at an alarming rate with far-reaching repercussions. The government’s move to counter this infiltration by Gen Zs   was to engage popular bloggers on its payroll which has completely failed to counter the onslaught by the computer savvy Gen Zs.

Ruto campaign team has lost the keyboard war with word that come next year’s election time, Kenya’s internet will experience shut downs, when the government will pull the plug on the internet and social networks.

However, analysts say if it happens as it was witnessed during Tanzania and Uganda elections, it will have no impact as already, anti-Ruto crusade is in top gear, changing the political ground.

That digital media in Kenya is influencing even voters in diaspora against Ruto going by reaction across borders is no secret. Remember, the world is now a global village with the digital technology.

Kenya is one of those countries deeply linked to digital platforms, and in 2027, it will influence voting patterns.

As one political commentator, a one-time PS Mndeke writes, politics is, at its core, a game of numbers.

Winning requires more than empty rhetoric; it demands precision marketing: strategic profiling, deliberate rebranding, persuasive messaging, and sleek packaging that convinces the consumer, the voter, that our candidate is the rightful occupant of the political seat in question.
He went further to state: “ Social media is no longer a casual tool; it is an electoral weapon. It gathers intelligence, shapes narratives, dismantles propaganda, and pulls undecided voters into the fold.

“To dismiss its impact is not only naïve but dangerously misleading. The truth is undeniable: the majority of our citizens, armed with smartphones, whether high-end iPhones or affordable devices, are actively plugged into digital spaces. Regardless of age, gender, or status, they are online, and 35–40% of the votes cast in 2027 will be decisively influenced by what circulates on these platforms”.

He continues: “We must shift our mindsets, rewrite the narrative, and embrace social media as the decisive frontier of modern politics. But with this power, comes responsibility: it must not be reduced to a megaphone of alarmism, hatred, tribalism, or divisive rhetoric.

“Instead, it should become an instrument of unity, harmony, and visionary leadership – the divine pulse of a new political order. Let the political class embrace this digital concept”.

Wise words but as we head towards 2027, many will agree that Ruto has lost the digital war. Remember, one term narrative is now being felt most on digital platforms generated free of charge, poking holes in Ruto’s 2022 campaign, most recent being increase of fuel pump prices.

In fact, it is silently uttered that Ruto is aware that he has lost the digital war, and has resorted to traditional ones to push his agenda in 2027 campaigns. He has acquired Star Newspaper, his ally Tanzania tycoon Roster Aziz, now controlling Nation Media with Royal Media owner, SK Macharia, having met Ruto at State House. It is Standard Group outlets –  Standard Newspaper, KTN and your favourite Weekly Citizen, the establishment has no kind words for, including labeling them as gutter press.

P.S  Mndeke
Ruto during the National Prayer Breakfast meeting attended by senior government officials and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Oburu Oginga assured Kenyans that he would respect the will of the people, describing leadership transitions as part of a divine plan that cannot be altered by human effort.
The President made the assurance after his allies repeated the threat to rig the elections by manipulating the elections system to ensure Ruto retains the presidency.
Ruto’s allies who have threatened to rig the elections include MPs Oscar Sudi (Kapseret), William Kamket (Tiaty) and Fatuma Jehow (Wajir Woman Representative).
The three politicians hail from different political parties with Sudi belonging to UDA, Jehow ODM and Kamket Kanu with
Musalia Mudavadi, the prime cabinet secretary for foreign affairs and diaspora,  issuing a caution during a rally in Western Kenya that you cannot unseat a sitting African president.
The rigging concerns prompted IEBC to warn politicians against making remarks that undermine public confidence in the electoral process and distort perceptions of Kenya’s democracy ahead of the next elections.
The rigging claims were reinforced by opposition leaders led by former Attorney General and Democratic Party leader, Justin Muturi who accused Ruto of plotting to manipulate the IEBC and the Interior Ministry to influence future elections.
Muturi claimed Ruto had held covert meetings with senior IEBC commissioners to scheme how to illegally register voters.
But while addressing the National Prayer Breakfast, a tense Ruto appeared to send a signal of potential vulnerability and panic on his re-election next year, reducing the rigging threats to mere hot air from his worried allies.
While in the past Ruto has been exuding confidence in securing re-election in the 2027 polls, and even declaring that his performance in office places him well ahead of opposition, and even publicly setting a target to win by a margin of two to three million votes, last Thursday he appeared like a man who has surrendered his fate even before the whistle to start official campaigns is officially blown.
From his body language at the prayer meeting, the President appeared to acknowledge that his political standing and potential re-election prospects face significant voter pushback over rising public discontent due to the high cost of living and governance failures.
By declaring he will leave his second-term election outcome to God, political pundits interpreted the rhetoric as signaling potential vulnerability and panic regarding his political future.
Pundits say Ruto’s early campaigns and defensive maneuvers from his administration point to a drowning man clutching at a straw.
The only card left on his table is to divide the opposition, and even then he faces a nightmare of securing the constitutional threshold of 50-plus one vote to win in the first round and 25% of votes cast in 24 counties out of the 47 devolved units.
From the various surveys, the latest being TIFA, Ruto’s ratings stand at 28%, which means he falls short by 32% to win in the first round even though he himself later rubbished that survey.
In case of a run-off in the presidential race, the President would also have difficulties attracting another party to partner with him. 
The President’s game-plan of reviving the “hustler”, a phrase referring to the highly controversial political narrative in Kenya executed by late Raila Odinga in 2007 General Election, is falling apart.
In Mt Kenya, following the dramatic falling-out and subsequent impeachment of Gachagua as Deputy President, things have not been the same as some political leaders and critics have accused Ruto’s inner circle plan to intentionally isolate politicians aligned with Gachagua—such as former Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala— who publicly accused the current administration of ethnic profiling against the Kikuyu people is now counterproductive. 
But the narrative of reviving a scenario where one dominant ethnic community is isolated politically by a coalition of the country’s other 41 communities is falling apart, as all communities are bearing the weight of bad governance. What is emerging is that it is Kenyans against two term.
Opposition leaders have frequently claimed Ruto’s political maneuvers, public statements, early countrywide tours and grassroots campaigns show his administration is already in panic mode trying to salvage its public standing amid economic frustration.
Your favourite Weekly Citizen can report that the President is now a worried man after nearly all his strategies for re-election appear to hit a brick wall.
To start with, Ruto’s efforts to normalise relations with past political rivals, such as the Kenyatta family, have failed, leaving him with no new political allies in Mt Kenya region to replace Gachagua whom he funded his impeachment.
Before and after Gachagua’s impeachment, the President had been trying to win over Uhuru, hoping to fill the void left by his former deputy, particularly in the vote-rich Mt Kenya region.
This explains why in late 2024, Ruto made a highly publicised attempt to mend fences with his predecessor through a surprise visit to Uhuru’s rural home in Ichaweri where he gifted him 12 goats in a symbolic gesture of peace, but all in vain as Uhuru has repeatedly rejected overtures since September 2022.
Ruto’s other failed olive branch extension involved high-level behind-the-scenes negotiations aimed at calming national tensions and rebuilding bridges with the Mount Kenya region.
For now, there has been a growing political shift in Mt Kenya characterised by rising hostility where regional leaders and former supporters have openly declared that the mountain is one-tam (in reference to Ruto serving only one term as president).
The President’s repeated forays in the region to drum up support for his re-election (tutam) have made little gains in a region that in 2022 polls, gave him the highest number of votes countrywide, some 3.5 million votes.
The President has even openly acknowledged the headache of wooing the region and admitted he has work to do to regain their trust, frequently stating he is “trusting in God” to soften voter’s hearts.
What worsens the situation is that despite the thinning support, his allies in Mt Kenya have been pressurising him to retain Deputy President Kithure Kindiki as running mate or forget the region’s votes.
 The Mt Kenya UDA leaders have made it clear that they are strongly opposed to demands by ODM politicians, who expressed interest in claiming the deputy president’s seat in future coalition talks.
 The demands by the UDA brigade has forced Ruto to reluctantly endorse his deputy during tours in Mt Kenya region.
This was evident recently in Murang’a County where Ruto asked crowds if Kindiki was up to the task and capable of organising government development.
In Mt Kenya again, the ruling UDA is facing internal strife and pushback as prominent figures seek to unite the mountain under a localised political force.
Many UDA leaders in Mt Kenya also are silently grumbling that Ruto has lost touch in the region and would quickly bolt out given an opportunity.
Indeed, the condemnation UDA Secretary General Omar Hassan received over his remarks on Kikuyus was a tipping point of the growing anger over Ruto but most fear to say it in public.
Last week, MPs allied to UDA from the Mt Kenya region intensified pressure on the party’s Secretary General demanding his immediate resignation over what they termed as “dangerous” and “divisive” remarks targeting the Kikuyu community.
The lawmakers were led by Kiambaa MP John Njuguna Wanjiku, Thika Town MP Alice Ng’ang’a and Laikipia Woman Representative Jane Kagiri, all close allies of the President.
They warned that they would petition the party leadership and even reconsider their membership in UDA should Omar fail to step down.
This fallout exposed the widening cracks within the ruling party, with the Mt. Kenya bloc is now openly revolting against one of UDA’s top officials over remarks they claim promote ethnic profiling at a time the country is already entering an early political season ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The President also faces a difficult task of nominating his running mate due to competing demands from multiple regions and competing interests.
For instance, he faces the dilemma of retaining support from the vote-rich Mt Kenya region by retaining Kindiki while also satisfying the political ambitions of Western Kenya—which is pushing for Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya—and other regions.
Western leaders are actively pushing for Oparanya’s nomination as running mate on the assumption that elevating him will help consolidate the Western vote and whittle down the influence of Edwin Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi, a breakaway faction of ODM.
To make matters more complicated, the new kids on the bloc- Trans Nzoia governor George Natembeya and Sifuna – are gaining popularity, with their Tawe Movement and Linda Mwananchi slogans resonating well with the voter’s desire for fresh and independent leadership.
In Western again, Ruto faces a growing political headache primarily driven by rising dissatisfaction with the region’s top leaders – Mudavadi and National Assembly speaker Moses Wetang’ula.
Mudavadi and Wetang’ula’s diminishing influence in Luhya politics has become a source of concern for Ruto as they lead his re-election campaigns in a region he needs over 70% of votes to be assured of re-election.
The duo, Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are losing the traditional grip on the Luhya vote due to lack of political independence and economic development.
To reverse the trend, there is talk that Ruto needs to pick Mudavadi as his running mate but doubts still linger whether the former Deputy Prime Minister can marshal the Mulembe Nation to back the President en masse.
It is this growing frustration over the shifting political landscape that has forced Wetang’ula to declare that he will not seek either parliamentary or senatorial seat in 2027, but will  instead go for a higher seat.
Already, some regional leaders in Western are fronting him as a contender for the presidency or running mate on the Kenya Kwanza ticket, and presidency in the 2032 polls.
But all efforts by Mudavadi and Wetang’ula to win the region to Ruto’s side are in vain due to the grassroots disillusionment over economic hardships and perceptions.
But reports say the President’s inner core that comprises Farouk Kibet, his long-time highly influential Personal Assistant, Davis Chirchir, a seasoned technocrat and Cabinet Secretary, serving as one of Ruto’s most trusted strategists on energy and state operations,  Kipchumba Murkomen, CS for Interior and Administration, serving as a top legal and political defender,  Felix Koskei, Head of Public Service and Chief – of – Staff,  managing the day-to-day operations of the government, Gladys Shollei, the National Assembly Deputy Speaker, providing key legislative backing and representation from Uasin Gishu County, Oscar Sudi, the Kapsaret MP and a close confidant who acts as a vocal grassroots mobiliser in the Rift Valley,  Aaron Cheruiyot, the Senator for Kericho and a loyal legislative leader who helps drive the administration’s agenda and  Dr Korir Sing’oei, the Principal Secretary for Foreign Affairs who acts as a key diplomatic and policy adviser, are shopping for a powerful Luhya to deputise Ruto in 2027.
A signal that Kindikl is being sidelined at State House emerged two weeks ago following his noticeable absence from several key events and national crises when the President was in Buka, Azerbaijan to attend the 13^th  Session of the World Urban Forum.
During the President’s extended international travel, and a subsequent paralysing fuel strike, Kindiki was notably absent from emergency arbitration efforts in Nairobi.
Whether Ruto will swallow the gamble by his inner core to drop Kindiki as running mate remains to be seen.
In ODM, Ruto got a reprieve after the party appeared to drop its earlier demand for the deputy president slot, and thus might take the Speaker of the National Assembly slot in the coalition arrangement.
Recently, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga publicly declared she will defend her seat in the upcoming elections, contradicting her earlier position of going for the running mate slot.
As the ODM National Chairperson, Wanga has been a key proponent of ODM’s inclusion in the current broad-based government and selection of a running mate from the Orange Party.
But ODM party leader, Dr Oginga has been sending mixed signals over the party’s 2027 stand.
He recently stirred another political storm after declaring interest in the presidency at the 2027 General Election through ODM, just less than a week after announcing that he would defend his Siaya Senate seat.
Oburu, however, clarified that if ODM opts not to field a presidential candidate, then he would defend his Siaya Senatorial seat in 2027 – a declaration that has reportedly sent Senate hopefuls in the county back to the drawing board.
Oburu’s remarks came at a time when ODM Minority Leader in the National Assembly, Millie Odhiambo and ODM Deputy Organising Secretary, who is also Kisumu Woman Representative, Ruth Odinga,  publicly called for caution over the “two-term” and “one-term” political discourse.
In separate statements shared on their social media platforms, the two legislators appeared to align themselves with Oburu’s position, insisting that the focus should remain on strengthening the party rather than engaging in slogan politics.
The two are uncomfortable with any political arrangement that will see ODM not field a presidential candidate,
At the Coast, a vote bloc Ruto plans to inherit for ODM, he is navigating a resurgent opposition led by Kalonzo Musyoka, widespread economic grievances and historical land injustices.
Coast remains a volatile battleground where grassroots discontent threatens Ruto’s 2027 coalition-building efforts.
Last week, Coast-based political factions, notably the Kadu Asili party, censured Ruto for recycling and rebranding infrastructure projects initiated by Uhuru regime.  
The Kadu Asili officials led by Mudzo Nzili criticised the Ruto administration for offering false promises, arguing that the only construction actively pushed is the controversial affordable housing scheme.
The criticism came at a time government-allied leaders at the Coast led by Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho have been defending the current administration’s active work on resolving decades-long land disputes.